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Rumors, Lies and Equity

There is a version of the housing market story that gets told over and over, and it goes like this: prices are high, rates are high, nothing is affordable, and the only people buying are the ones with cash. That version is not wrong, exactly. It is just incomplete.

Home prices at the national level have held close to their peaks despite a sharp rise in mortgage rates. The reason is supply. Homeowners who locked in three percent mortgages in 2020 and 2021 have almost no incentive to sell, which means the correction that many analysts were expecting simply did not materialize the way the data suggested it should.

Affordability, by the standard measure of what share of median household income goes toward the monthly payment on a median-priced home, is near its worst level since the early 1980s. That is a real problem, and it is not going away quickly. But affordability being stretched does not mean prices are about to fall sharply. What it means, practically, is that the pool of qualified buyers is smaller than it was three years ago.

Shop more than one institution, because the spread in rates and costs is real. A 0.25 percent gap between two lenders’ quotes adds up to around twenty thousand dollars over a thirty-year loan on a four hundred thousand dollar mortgage. Lender fees vary too. Ask each lender for a Loan Estimate document, which breaks down all costs in a standardized format.

The inspection is where the marketing copy meets reality. Show up for it even if it costs you half a day of work. A good home inspector will walk you through what they are finding as they go, and those few hours will shape your understanding of the home for as long as you own it.

Negotiation works best when it is quiet and well-prepared. Before you make an offer, find out how long the listing has been active. A listing that has been sitting for six weeks with no price adjustment is a fundamentally different negotiation than a fresh listing in a neighborhood where homes sell in under a week.

Real estate is illiquid. If there is a reasonable chance you will need to move in two years, renting is the financially rational choice. None of that means do not buy. It means be honest about your time horizon before you commit.

The buyers who come out ahead in this market are not the ones who waited for perfect conditions. They are the ones who treated the purchase like a business decision rather than an emotional one. The most useful thing you can do today is look at homes for sale near you and see whether the numbers work for your situation.